Top 3 Holiday Shopping Predictions for 2023

In our recently released 2023 holiday trends report, created in partnership with ad-tech platform Nexxen, we cover the biggest consumer shopping and advertising trends expected to shape this year’s festive season.

Based on this data, we’re sharing the top 3 holiday season predictions that every marketer should be keeping in mind.

#1: Early shopping is in

Our Prediction: Half of all consumer holiday spending will occur in November this year, taking more share from December than ever before.

The holiday shopping season is creeping in earlier and earlier each year, and this year, it's coming at lightning speed. This may be partly due to factors such as Hanukkah being 11 days earlier this year and Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days serving as a kickoff for the holiday shopping season in early October.

Amazon’s Prime Big Deals Day in particular is poised to dominate the consumer shopping conversation and serve as a kick-off to this year’s holiday spending, forcing consumers to think about holiday gifts far before they may have otherwise. When it comes to social sentiment, Amazon Prime Day carries an impressive 60% of the conversation around online holiday shopping ¹, leaving traditional powerhouses Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the dust.

As a result of Amazon’s impact among other factors, the share of consumer eCommerce spend in December is expected to shrink for the second year in a row with November and October seeing increases in share of Q4 spend as spending shifts earlier ². We’re anticipating November’s share of digital eCommerce holiday spend to hit a whopping 50%, meaning half of all consumer holiday spending will take place in November this year.

What this means for marketers:

• Consider starting holiday promotions earlier this year to capture the share of wallet from consumers who are ready to do their holiday shopping in October.
• Don’t put all your eggs in the Black Friday and Cyber Monday baskets and ensure you have a strategy for capturing consumer attention far before these dates.

#2: The Mobile Shopping Revolution

Our Prediction: Half of all consumer holiday eCommerce spend is expected to be transacted from mobile devices.

Grab your smartphones because this holiday season, mobile purchases are set to reach an all-time high. With consistent peaks in Q4 each year, mobile eCommerce spend topped 42% in Q4 last year² and we expect that share to be even higher this year.

Total consumer eCommerce spend on desktop is still expected to grow year-over-year (YoY) when compared to last Q4, but mobile eCommerce spend will experience YoY growth at a greater rate. This shift is part of a continuing trend of consumers becoming more comfortable completing purchases from their mobile devices thanks to factors such as larger screen sizes, more seamless eCommerce site experiences and simplified checkout processes with auto-fill features.

In particular, the data points to ticket and event purchases as the eCommerce product category leading the mobile shopping revolution. During the 2022 holiday season nearly 88% of all ticket and event purchases were made on mobile devices³ and we expect that number to break the 90% threshold this year. This massive share of mobile purchases for tickets and events is likely driven by mobile QR codes being more frequently used as entry tickets. Consumers are choosing to complete ticket purchases directly from their mobile devices so they can immediately save their tickets right where they need them.

What this means for marketers:

• Have a strong mobile commerce strategy that’s optimized for a seamless checkout experience. This is especially important during the holiday season when share of mobile spend spikes to such high rates.
• Invest in your mobile advertising strategy with ad formats that make it easy for consumers to engage with your brand and easily complete a purchase, all from a mobile device.

#3: Social Media Mania Our Prediction:

Our Prediction: Two-thirds of all shoppers will rely on social media to influence their gift buying this holiday season.

Get ready for a holiday season where social media takes center stage like never before. Over 80% of marketer respondents in our recent survey are gearing up to deploy social advertising strategies, clearly demonstrating that they've recognized the pivotal role social media is playing in driving purchasing decisions ⁴.

In a recent report, McKinsey found that 58% of consumers acknowledge that social media will significantly influence their holiday purchasing choices. Gen Z was leading the shift with 87% expecting to find inspiration for their holiday shopping on social platforms. The role of social media in our daily lives and its influence over purchasing decisions has only grown over the last two years, leading us to predict that over two-thirds of all shoppers will rely on social media to influence their gift buying this holiday season.

What this means for marketers:

• If you’re not advertising on social media, in particular for B2C brands, you’ll be missing out on a major opportunity to capture consumers’ attention and money this holiday season.
• It’s critical to have an effective strategy for reaching your target audience seamlessly across all media types, including social, for a cohesive brand experience.

Want to explore more holiday consumer and marketing trends set to shape the 2023 holiday season? Download the full report.

Proximic by Comscore has you covered with Holiday Shopper Predictive Audiences, contextual targeting segments surrounding the holiday season and many other custom targeting options. Contact us today to learn more.

Sources:
1. Nexxen, 2022, Proprietary Discovery Platform Data
2. Comscore Digital Commerce Measurement, U.S., Q4 2018-2022
3. Comscore Total Digital, Q1 2019 – Q2 2023, U.S.
4. Comscore Custom Survey, “Holiday Checklist”, Age 18+, August 2023, U.S