Portuguese and U.S. Fans Most Overconfident about “Home Team’s” Performance Going into World Cup

Confidence in “Home Team” and Realism about Odds to Win the World Cup Varies Widely by Country, finds Comscore Networks

RESTON, VA, June 19, 2006 – Comscore Networks, a leader in digital media measurement, today released the results of an online survey conducted among a multi-country sample to gauge which country was expected to win the World Cup tournament. Overall responses across countries were consistent, with respondents tending to vote for either their home country or Brazil – with Brazil proving to be the overall favorite.

The survey was conducted during the week before the tournament began among nearly 5,000 Internet users across seven different countries, including England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the U.S.

Although most often chosen as the expected winner, the percentage of respondents selecting Brazil varied widely by country (Table A), with French residents being the most optimistic about the Brazilian team (46 percent expected Brazil to win), followed by Spanish residents (41 percent) and residents of the Netherlands (36 percent). Only 20% of U.S. respondents picked Brazil to win the tournament.

Table A

In terms of “home team voting”, the percentage of respondents voting for their country’s team ranged from 61 percent in Portugal to 29 percent among respondents in France, with the French apparently extremely pessimistic about their team's chances of winning the tournament (Table B).

However, Comscore found that when the individual country survey responses were compared with the average bookmakers’ odds of each country winning, some interesting findings emerged. The Portuguese appeared the most overconfident with their 61 percent home team vote far exceeding the 4 percent (or 23 to 1) chance of winning according to bookmakers. However, the U.S. came in a close second with a 33 percent home team vote, compared to only a 2 percent (40 to 1) bookmakers’ chance of winning the tournament.

The Overconfidence Index (defined as the ratio of the “home team vote” to the bookmakers’ official chance of winning multiplied by 100) ranged from 1467 for Portugal and 1346 for the U.S., to 399 for England and 373 for Germany. The French actually appeared slightly more overconfident than their German and English counterparts, with the 29 percent home team vote among the French being much higher than the 7 percent bookmaker chance of winning, resulting in an overconfidence index of 440.

Table B

*The Overconfidence Index is defined as the ratio of the “home team vote” to the official bookmakers’ chance of that country winning multiplied by 100. So, for example, the English are four times as optimistic as the average bookmaker that England will win the World Cup.

About Comscore Networks
Comscore Networks provides unparalleled insight into consumer behavior and attitudes. This capability is based on a massive, global cross-section of more than 2 million consumers who have given Comscore explicit permission to confidentially capture their browsing and transaction behavior, including online and offline purchasing. Comscore panelists also participate in survey research that captures and integrates their attitudes and intentions. Through its proprietary technology, Comscore measures what matters across a broad spectrum of behavior and attitudes. Comscore consultants apply this deep knowledge of customers and competitors to help clients design powerful marketing strategies and tactics that deliver superior ROI. Comscore services are used by global leaders such as AOL, Microsoft, Yahoo!, Verizon, Best Buy, The Newspaper Association of America, Tribune Interactive, ESPN, Fox Sports, Nestlé, MBNA, Universal McCann, the United States Postal Service, Merck and Expedia. For more information, please visit www.comscore.com.

Press
Bill Daddi
Daddi Brand Communications
646-370-1341
press@comscore.com